Total new vehicle sales (as reported by NAAMSA yesterday) recorded surprisingly strong growth in September of 30.0%y/y. Year-to-date domestic sales remained 16.2 % ahead of the corresponding nine month period in 2010.
Total new car sales during September 2011 were recorded at 37 832 units, reflecting an improvement of 7 851 new cars or an increase of 26.2% compared to the 29 981 new cars sold during September 2010. This was partly helped by increased sales to the car rental industry.
Sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and minibuses also exceeded expectations, and at 14 006 units during September 2011, reflected an increase of 4 109 units or a gain of 41.5% compared to the 9 897 units sold in the corresponding month last year. Sales of medium and heavy trucks at 854 units and 1 672 units respectively, recorded an increase of 237 units or 38.4% in the case of medium commercial vehicles and a gain of 342 units or 25.7% in the case of heavy trucks and buses compared to the corresponding month last year.
Exports of SA produced vehicles during September 2011 totalled 25 933 units, reflecting an increase of 13 399 vehicles or 106% compared to the depressed base of 12 534 units exported during September last year, when industry production was negatively affected by industrial action.
The latest figures exceeded industry expectations and are a good cause for optimism. The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) new vehicle sales data is a good indicator of overall economic activity. The motor industry is among the first to respond to changing conditions. According to NAAMSA: “The strength of the new car market in September 2011 could be attributed to a number of factors, including ongoing improvement in the financial position of consumers on the back of relatively low interest rates, further improvement in vehicle affordability in real terms and the positive influence of aggressive marketing and sales incentive programmes during the month. In addition, consumers would have been encouraged to bring forward planned purchases in light of the risk of future price increases as a result of the recent substantial depreciation in the Rand exchange rate”.
Looking ahead, there will be several new models launched this month at the Johannesburg International Motor Show to be held at Nasrec’s Expo Centre which could raise additional consumer interest. However, over the medium term, while the industry is expected to register growth, the direction of the global economy remains volatile and this could impact on future export sales.
Laura Jones
Economic Assistant
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