Economic focus

SA Rand is the worst performing emerging market currency year-to-date (posted 21/05/2013)
SA retail sales continued to slow in March, declining 0.9%m/m (posted 15/05/2013)
At least 14 countries have cut interest rates this year. The renewed bout of monetary stimulus could impact SA (posted 10/05/2013)
SA manufacturing activity recorded a shock decline in March 2013 (posted 09/05/2013)
SA unemployment rate rose to 25.2% in Q1 2013. Employment is still 406 000 below the previous peak (posted 06/05/2013)
SA PMI manufacturing index rose to above the key 50 index level in April (posted 02/05/2013)
SA trade deficit improved again in March to -R7.8bn, helped by an uplift in exports and some decline in imports (posted 02/05/2013)
SA bank credit grew slightly more than expected in March, up a still modest 7.8%y/y (posted 30/04/2013)
SA manufacturing activity fell sharply in February 2013 (posted 15/04/2013)
SA PMI manufacturing index fell more than expected in March 2013, back below the key 50 level (posted 02/04/2013)
SA Reserve Bank opted to leave interest rates unchanged. Monetary policy is facing a number of conflicting pressures (posted 20/03/2013)
SA consumer inflation well above expectations at 5.9%y/y. Risks to the upside given currency weakness (posted 20/03/2013)
S&P affirmed South Africa's credit rating as BBB, with a negative outlook (posted 14/03/2013)
SA retail sales slowed further in January 2013 (posted 14/03/2013)
SA consumer income and spending continued to slow in the final quarter of 2012 (posted 13/03/2013)
SA's current account deficit remains substantial at 6.5% of GDP (posted 13/03/2013)
SA tax revenue shortfall of R16.3bn in 2012/2013 (posted 05/03/2013)
SA petrol price to rise by a massive 81c/l on 6 March (posted 01/03/2013)
SA recorded another shock trade deficit in January 2013 of -R24.5bn (posted 01/03/2013)
SA National Budget contained few surprises (posted 27/02/2013)
SA GDP grew by 2.1%q/q in the final quarter of 2012 (above expectations) and by 2.5% in 2012 as a whole (posted 26/02/2013)
SA consumer inflation much lower than expected in January 2013 (posted 20/02/2013)
SA retail sales recorded a soild increase in December, but on a trend basis, retail activity is losing momentum (posted 14/02/2013)
SA manufacturing fell by a disappointing 2.2%m/m in December 2012, but recorded growth of 1.6%q/q in the final quarter (posted 07/02/2013)
SA lost 68 000 jobs in Q4 and gained a mere 80 000 jobs in 2012 as a whole (posted 06/02/2013)
SA credit growth up over 10%y/y in December 2012, but still no improvement in mortgage finance (posted 31/01/2013)
SA producer inflation remained contained at 5.2%y/y in December 2012 (posted 31/01/2013)
SA recorded a much improved trade deficit in December of R2.7bn, helped by a sharp decline in imports (posted 31/01/2013)
SA consumer inflation rose fractionally in December to 5.7%y/y, in-line with expectations (posted 23/01/2013)
SA leading economic indicator recorded a fairly substantial rise in November 2012 (posted 23/01/2013)
SA manufacturing PMI fell more than expected in December to a worrying 47.4 (posted 16/01/2013)
SA retail sales rose more than expected in November, but overall, retail activity is systematically losing momentum (posted 16/01/2013)
South Africa's credit rating was downgraded by Fitch to BBB from BBB+, outlook changed to stable (posted 11/01/2013)
SA manufacturing production much improved in November 2012, after very difficult few months (posted 10/01/2013)
South Africa ranked 69th most corrupt country in the world - 2012 International Corruption Perception Index (posted 10/12/2012)
SA consumer income and spending slowed further in Q3 2012, as expected (posted 10/12/2012)
SA current account deficit remained unchanged at 6.4% of GDP in Q3 2012, slightly better than expected (posted 06/12/2012)

Japan GDP grew by an impressive 3.5%q/q, much better than expected (posted 16/05/2013)
US E-Commerce still growing very rapidly, represents over 5% of total retail sales (posted 14/05/2013)
US retail sales better than expected in April 2013 (posted 13/05/2013)
US tax revenue continued to recover in April 2013 (posted 13/05/2013)
US home foreclosures fell by 23% over the past year to lowest level since Fenruary 2007 (posted 09/05/2013)
US GDP grew by an improved 2.5%q/q in Q1 2013, boosted by consumer activity (posted 29/04/2013)
US retail sales fell in March, worse than expected (posted 15/04/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #98: the relationship between the performance of the Japanese equity market and the Yen (posted 05/04/2013)
US added only 88 000 jobs in March, well below market expectations (posted 05/04/2013)
Euro-area unemployment at a record high of 12% in February 2013. Youth unemployment at 23.9% (posted 02/04/2013)
US households worth a net $66 trillion at end 2012, likely to reach a record high in 2013 (posted 11/03/2013)
US added an impressive 236 000 jobs in February 2013 despite the government shedding 10 000 jobs (posted 11/03/2013)
Euro-area GDP fell by 0.6%q/q in the final quarter of 2012, worse than expected (posted 18/02/2013)
US defence activity fell by a massive 22%q/q in Q4 2012. What caused the decline? (posted 05/02/2013)
US added a further 157 000 jobs in January 2013 (posted 05/02/2013)
US GDP declined by 0.1%q/q in Q4 2012, largely due to a massive decline in defence spending (posted 31/01/2013)
Japan central bank decided to raise the inflation target to 2% and extent the asset purchase programme indefintely (posted 23/01/2013)
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index remained positive for the second consecutive month in December 2012 (posted 23/01/2013)
US economic data remains encouraging, improving further towards end 2012 (posted 18/01/2013)
US housing starts rose much more than expected in December (posted 17/01/2013)
US retail sales rose more than expected in December 2012 (posted 16/01/2013)
US dependence on imported oil has declined significantly since peaking in 2005/2006. Projected to decline further (posted 15/01/2013)
US unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, which is the lowest since December 2008 (posted 10/12/2012)
France unemployment rate rose to 10.3% in Q3 2012, highest since 1999 (posted 06/12/2012)
US vehicle sales surged in November to highest level in almost five years (posted 06/12/2012)

STANLIB Interesting Chart #105: US banks excess reserves reached another record high (posted 21/05/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #104: there are 2.5 billion internet users in the world and rising (posted 15/05/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #103: the use of margin debt to buy US equities has reached its highest level since 2007. Is it a risk? (posted 07/05/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #102: the number of discouraged workers in South Africa has doubled since 2008 (posted 07/05/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #101: central banks systematically switching holdings of Dollar and Euro into 'Other' currencies (posted 02/05/2013)
Stanlib Interesting Chart #100: One potential benefit of global financial market crisis: less military conflict (posted 25/04/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #99: SA consumer inflation rate for pensioners consistently above the national average (posted 08/04/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #98: the relationship between the performance of the Japanese equity market and the Yen (posted 05/04/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #97: government salary increases cannot continue, need for some hard choices (posted 18/02/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #96: Updated data and discussion on SA's social grant payments (posted 08/02/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #95: Service delivery protests reached a record high of 173 in 2012, with 75% involving violence (posted 28/01/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #94: foreign investors have been net sellers of SA equities for two consecutive years (posted 14/01/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #93: US household debt servicing costs now at their lowest level in 29 years (posted 08/01/2013)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #92: It is critical that Transnet expands South Africa's rail freight capacity (posted 20/11/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #91: Current sources of fear, anxiety and uncertainty among global equity investors - a new weekly survey (posted 07/11/2012)
Stanlib Interesting Chart #90: youth unemployment rates in Euro-area are now an extreme concern (posted 15/10/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #89: US vs Japan house prices comparisson (posted 15/10/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #88: IMF's probability of global growth falling below 2% over the next 12 months has risen (posted 11/10/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #87: Japan has almost overtaken China as the largest foreign holder of US government debt (posted 18/09/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #86: Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed but remain high by historical standards (posted 27/08/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #85: The highs and lows of South African interest rates (posted 20/07/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #84: Euro-area PMI is signalling a below consensus growth outlook for the region (posted 19/07/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #83: how the world has changed in less than 10 years. Share of world trade split between developed and emerging markets (posted 06/07/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #81: US has won far more Economics Nobel prizes than any other country - but has it helped their economy? (posted 20/06/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #80: German 2-year bond yield down at a record low of only 2bps (posted 31/05/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #79 Greece bank deposits are under further pressure given the election uncertainty (posted 17/05/2012)
STANLIB Interesting Chart #78: Greece is still unable to form a coalition government (posted 15/05/2012)

US retail sales fell more than expected in October, declining 0.3%m/m (posted 15/11/2012)
US housing activity is on track to add 0.3 percentage points to US GDP (posted 12/11/2012)
US GDP rose more than expected in Q3 2012, growing by 2.0%q/q (posted 29/10/2012)
IMF World Economic Outlook October 2012: world growth revised lower again for both 2012 and 2013 (posted 10/10/2012)
US house prices rose for the sixth consecutive month in July 2012 (posted 25/09/2012)
Euro-area vehicle sales remained under pressure - bad news for platinum demand (posted 18/09/2012)
US ADP employment reflected a much better than expected gain of 201 000 jobs in August (10/09/2012)
ECB announced the technical features of the Outright Monetary Transactions (10/09/2012)
US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke did not announce QE3 today as many expected (04/09/2012)
SA recorded a largest ever deficit in October 2012 of -R21.2 billion, mainly due to a surge in imports (posted 30/11/2012)
SA petrol price to decline by 9c/l in December 2012 (posted 30/11/2012)
SA private sector credit contracted in October due to a pull-back in corporate credit (posted 30/11/2012)
SA GDP grew by a subdued 1.2%q/q in Q3 2012, hurt by the strikes (posted 27/11/2012)
SARB decided to leave interest rates unchanged, remains concerned about the growth outlook (posted 22/11/2012)
SA consumer inflation higher than expected in October 2012 at 5.6%y/y, mainly due to surge in food prices (posted 21/11/2012)
SA business confidence fell only fractionally in Q4 2012 despite the increased labour unrest (posted 20/11/2012)
SA retail sales growth slowed more than expected in September to 4.3%y/y (posted 15/11/2012)
SA new CPI weights could result in a more volatile inflation rate (posted 14/11/2012)
SA household expenditure is dominated by housing, transport and food, while growth in spending on clothing and footwear remains exceptionally high  (posted 08/11/2012)
SA petrol price to decrease by  10c/l in November due to lower international prices (posted 02/11/2012)
SA recorded a massive trade deficit of R13.8bn in September due to a further decline in exports (posted 31/10/2012)
SA Census 2011 key results highlight income, education, and basic living conditions (posted 31/10/2012)
SA private sector credit driven higher in September 2012 by corporate credit (posted 29/10/2012)
SA's 2012 MTBPS reflects a determination to achieve fiscal discipline under still very difficult conditions (posted 26/10/2012)
SA leading economic indicator improved fractionally in August (posted 24/20/2012)
SA consumer inflation much higher than expected in Sep 2012 at 5.5% (posted 24/10/2012)
SA's credit rating downgraded by Standard and Poor's to BBB from BBB+. The negative outlook maintained (posted 15/10/2012)
SA recorded another shock trade deficit in August of R12.2bn (posted 29/09/2012)
South Africa's credit rating was downgraded today by Moody's to Baa1. Outlook remains negative (posted 29/09/2012)
SA leading indicator rose in July 2012 after declining for four consecutive months (posted 25/09/2012)

Euro-area economic sentiment weakened sharply in August (posted 31/08/2012)
US fiscal cliff could push the US economy back into recession in early 2013, if not handled correctly (posted 30/08/2012)
US house prices increased in June, up almost 1% in the month and finally positive on an annual basis (posted 29/08/2012)

SA consumer inflation rose modestly to 5.0%y/y in August, in-line with expectations (posted 19/09/2012)
SA gained 42 000 formal sector jobs in Q2 2012. Construction employment stabilised, but manufacturing loosing jobs (posted 18/09/2012)
SA consumer income and spending continued to slow in Q2 2012 (posted 14/09/2012)
SA recorded another substantial trade deficit in July 2012 (posted 04/09/2012)
SA PPI inflation lower than expected in July at 5.4%y/y (posted 30/08/2012)
SA credit growth eased a little in July to 8.3%y/y (posted 30/08/2012)
SA GDP grew by 3.2%q/q in Q2 2012, in-line with expectations (posted 28/08/2012)
US housing market has continued to improve into the second half of 2012, albeit off a very low base (posted 27/08/2012)
SA consumer inflation much lower than expected in July at 4.9%y/y (posted 22/08/2012)
SA leading economic indicator declined far more than expected in June, down a concerning 4.3%y/y (posted 21/08/2012)
US consumer inflation much lower than expected in July 2012 at 1.4%y/y, helped by a further decline in energy inflation (posted 16/08/2012)
SA retail sales much better than expected in June (posted 15/08/2012)Euro-area GDP fell in Q2 2012 (posted 15/08/2012)
US retail sales rose more than expected in July (posted 15/08/2012)
US employment much better than expected in July, up 163 000 (posted 06/08/2012)
SA recorded another trade deficit in June 2012. SA import intensity trending higher again (posted 31/07/2012)
SA unemployment rate eased to 24.9% in Q2 2012, helped by a small rise in formal sector employment (posted 31/07/2012)
US Q2 GDP growth fractionally better than expected, but still weak at 1.5%q/q, down from 2.0% in Q1 2012 (posted 27/07/2012)
US fiscal cliff update (posted 25/07/2012)
UK GDP declined by a shock 0.7%q/q in Q2 2012, broad-based decline in activity (posted 25/07/2012)
SA petrol price to rise by 22c/l on Wed 1 August 2012, with a further rise possible in September (posted 27/07/2012)
SA leading indicator declined for the third consecutive month in May 2012 (posted 24/07/2012)
SA Reserve Bank surprised with a 50bps cut in rates, inflation and growth forecasts revised significantly lower (posted 19/07/2012)
SA CPI inflation lower than expected in June at 5.5%y/y (posted 19/07/2012)
SA civil cases for debt have decreased noticeably in the past quarter: consumers in better financial position but still vulnerable (posted 19/07/2012)
SA retail sales recorded growth of 6.4%y/y in May (posted 19/07/2012)
SA BER consumer confidence fell sharply in Q2 2012 to -3. Lowest level since end 2008 (posted 19/07/2012)
IMF revised down their world growth outlook, especially growth in India, China, Europe and US as well as SA (posted 19/07/2012)
US retail sales much worse than expected in June, will dampen the Q2 2012 US GDP (posted 16/07/2012)
SA manufacturing activity well above expectations in May, up 4.2%y/y (posted 12/07/2012)
SA Business Confidence (SACCI) improved by 2.1 points in June 2012, after a dismal reading in May 2012 (posted 11/07/2012)
China's exports to Europe under further pressure in June (posted 10/07/2012)
ADP employment reflected a gain of 176 000 in private sector jobs during June 2012 (posted 06/07/2012)
ECB decided to cut interest rates in-line with market expectations (posted 06/07/2012)
US timetable of political and policy events towards the end of 2012 (posted 06/07/2012)
IMF annual review of the US (posted 06/07/2012)
STANLIB Economic forecasts for July 2012 (posted 06/07/2012)
SA Kagiso PMI index recorded a sharp decline in June (posted 06/07/2012)
SA petrol price (95 octane) to decline by 85c/l (posted 05/07/2012
Euro-area summit finally agreed on some useful short-term measures (posted 05/07/2012)
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index to -0.45 in May (posted 26/06/2012)
US employment monitor June 2012: labour market conditions have deteriorated (posted 25/06/2012)
Euro Area Passenger Vehicle Sales (posted 21/06/2012)
Greece: would you really want to be in charge of the economy? (posted 20/06/2012)
Greece election won by New Democracy with 29.7% of vote (posted 20/06/2012)
US net wealth has risen by an impressive $11.6 trillion since the low in 2009 (posted 12/06/2012)
US consumer credit rose for the 8th consecutive month in April 2012, up $6.5bn (posted 08/06/2012)
Spanish unemployment fell by 30 113 in May, helped by a pick-up in tourism. (posted 04/06/2012)
US employment much weaker than expected in May 2012, lowest job gain in a year (posted 01/06/2012)
Greece election poll indicates that the New Democracy party has retaken the lead (posted 28/05/2012)
US consumer update: the recovery in US consumer activity appears sustainable but modest (posted 21/05/2012)
US is facing a massive $626 billion in fiscal tightening at the end of 2012 (posted 09/05/2012)
SA leading indicator weakened sharply in April, suggesting the economy is systematically losing momentum (posted 26/06/2012)
SA current account deficit widened sharply to 4.9% of GDP in Q1 2012 (posted 21/06/2012)
SA consumer inflation much lower than expected in May 2012 at 5.7%y/y, despite a petrol price hike (posted 20/06/2012)
SA growth in formal sector employment stalled in Q1 2012 with a gain of only 5 000 jobs (posted 20/06/2012)
SA retail sales growth slumped to a mere 1.0%y/y in April 2012 (posted 13/06/2012)
Oil price decline should provide some relieve to world economy (posted 05/06/2012)
SA petrol price to decline by a very welcome 55c/l next week  (posted 04/06/2012)
SA recorded a larger than expected trade deficit of R9.87bn in April (posted 01/06/2012)
SA producer inflation lower than expected in April at 6.6%y/y (posted 31/05/2012)
SA GDP rose more than expected in Q1 2012, up 2.7%q/q (posted 29/05/2012)
SA consumer inflation rose less than expected in April 2012, up 6.1%y/y (posted 23/05/2012)
SA leading indicator rose only fractionally in March, but annual rate of change has slowed measurably (posted 22/05/2012)
SA unemployment rate back above 25% in Q1 2012. Labour force rose by 207 000 in Q1 2012, but employment fell by 75 000 (posted 09/05/2012)